Follow-Through Day Tracker
Detect O'Neil-style rally confirmations for SPY & QQQ after market corrections.
What Is a Follow-Through Day?
A Follow-Through Day (FTD) is a specific confirmation signal developed by investor and author William O'Neil as part of the CAN SLIM methodology, popularized through Investor's Business Daily. It is designed to identify when a market correction is likely ending and a new uptrend is beginning — with institutional conviction behind the move.
The Three-Step Setup
An FTD requires three conditions to occur in sequence. First, the market must be in a correction — typically defined as a major index (SPY or QQQ) declining 8% or more from a recent high. Second, the index must attempt a rally by closing higher on any day during the correction; this becomes Day 1 of the rally attempt. Third, on Day 4 or later of the rally attempt, the index must close up at least 1.7% on volume that is higher than the prior day's volume. That third day is the Follow-Through Day.
Why Day 4 or Later?
O'Neil's research found that virtually all failed rally attempts break down within the first three days. Requiring a confirmation to occur on Day 4 or later filters out the short-covering bounces that resolve quickly back to lows. The volume requirement — higher than the prior session — confirms that institutional investors (mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds) are participating in the buy, not just retail short-sellers covering positions.
How to Trade an FTD Signal
An FTD is not a signal to go fully invested immediately. O'Neil's approach treats it as a green light to begin building exposure carefully. Traders typically start with pilot positions — smaller than normal size — in leading stocks that held up best during the correction (high relative strength). As the market proves itself over the following days and weeks, exposure is increased. If distribution days (high-volume down days) cluster shortly after the FTD, the signal has likely failed.
FTD Failure Rate and Context
Roughly 20–25% of Follow-Through Days fail to produce a sustained new uptrend. Failure rates are higher during severe bear markets (2008, 2022) and when the broader economic backdrop is deteriorating rapidly. The FTD method works best as one input in a larger picture — combining it with breadth signals (MCO trending positive), sector leadership (which industries are leading the recovery), and the quality of stocks breaking out provides a more complete assessment than the FTD signal alone.
This Tracker
This tracker monitors SPY and QQQ daily, automatically identifying correction periods, counting rally attempt days, and flagging when the volume and price criteria for an FTD are met. It is intended as an educational reference tool — a starting point for further research, not a standalone trade recommendation system.
Data sourced from yfinance. This page is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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Market Status
Analyzing market data for Follow-Through Days…
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Historical Track Record
Our algorithm backtested against 5+ years of SPY & QQQ data (2020–2026). Every major market bottom was captured.
| FTD Date | Index | Day | Gain | Vol Ratio | Market Context | 1M Return | 3M Return | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2020 | SPY | 10 | +6.72% | 1.39x | COVID crash bottom | +7.3% | +19.0% | Confirmed |
| Oct 21, 2022 | SPY | 7 | +2.43% | 1.48x | 2022 bear market bottom | +5.4% | +7.4% | Confirmed |
| Nov 10, 2022 | SPY | 5 | +5.50% | 1.80x | CPI surprise rally | +1.1% | +5.1% | Confirmed |
| Jan 6, 2023 | SPY | 6 | +2.29% | 1.35x | 2023 rally start | +7.0% | +6.0% | Confirmed |
| Aug 29, 2023 | SPY | 8 | +1.45% | 1.35x | Late summer correction | -4.3% | +1.6% | Failed |
| Nov 10, 2023 | SPY | 10 | +1.56% | 1.08x | Q4 2023 rally | +5.3% | +12.6% | Confirmed |
| QQQ (NASDAQ 100) | ||||||||
| Apr 2, 2020 | QQQ | 13 | +2.03% | 1.05x | COVID crash bottom | +15.7% | +35.8% | Confirmed |
| Nov 10, 2022 | QQQ | 5 | +7.38% | 1.53x | 2022 bear market bottom | +1.0% | +7.9% | Confirmed |
| Aug 13, 2024 | QQQ | 4 | +2.48% | 1.44x | Summer 2024 correction | +2.3% | +11.2% | Confirmed |
| Mar 18, 2022 | QQQ | 4 | +2.05% | 1.26x | Early 2022 bounce | -1.4% | -21.8% | Failed |
| Dec 27, 2021 | QQQ | 4 | +1.65% | 1.11x | Pre-2022 bear market | -14.6% | -9.4% | Failed |
SPY & QQQ FTD backtest Jan 2020 – Apr 2026. Forward returns measured from FTD close. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is a Follow-Through Day?
A Follow-Through Day (FTD) is a market-timing concept developed by William O'Neil (creator of CANSLIM) to help identify the start of a new uptrend after a correction.
How it works
- 1. Market enters a correction (5%+ drawdown or breaks below 50-day MA).
- 2. A rally attempt begins when the index closes higher than the previous day.
- 3. On Day 4+ of the rally, if the index gains ≥1.25% on volume higher than the prior day, that's an FTD. Days 4–7 are the prime window; signals can also occur on later days.
- 4. The FTD fails if the index later undercuts the correction low.
Important caveats
- • Not every FTD leads to a sustained rally — some fail when the index undercuts the correction low.
- • Every major market bottom was preceded by an FTD — it's a necessary but not sufficient condition.
- • Our 5-year backtest: SPY 87.5% success (7/8), QQQ 67% (12/18). QQQ triggers more often due to higher volatility.
- • Use alongside breadth, leadership quality, and your own analysis.
- • This tool is educational — not investment advice.
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Full Market Health in the app, The Agent, strategies, and more.